Even before the amendments to the 1999 constitution which the military class unilaterally bequeathed the country, its provision on tenure for elected political office holders was both specific and unambiguous. It specified a maximum of two four-year term tenure which can come consecutively or otherwise, but nothing more. For over twenty years, the polity has experimented with the 1999 constitution, expectedly there have been numerous amendments, but none has touched the tenure elongation.
In 2006, during former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s second term in office, the polity was literally set on fire following moves by the National Assembly to amend the constitution, especially on tenure elongation. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP), on whose platform President Obasanjo won the election had two-third majority in the National Assembly, especially in the senate and could have buckled under pressure to amend the constitution. On that faithful day, the senate presided over by Senator Ken Nnamani resolved that every senator would take the floor and explain what informed his or her opinion. Television networks aired the senate proceeding live. The senators rose to the occasion and overwhelmingly voted against tenure elongation, sign-posting a death knell to the third
term gambit.
In this year’s presidential election, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) returned President Muhammadu Buhari as duly elected for a four-year second term in office. Even though the outcome of that election is still subject to judicial interpretation, some amorphous groups have started drumming up support for a constitutional amendment to give the incumbent president a third term in office. Their argument is based on the premise that President Buhari has done well and needs an additional term in office to pull the country out of the present economic plight. Expectedly, sundry lobbyists have emerged advancing opinions that are wrong-headed in logic and at best self-serving.
The presidency has distanced itself from this tenure elongation project stating that President Buhari is primed to doing his utmost best for the country within the two-term constitutionally guaranteed tenure and nothing more. That is expected and also reassuring. However, this is a road Nigerians have passed before and are very wary of. The political class expects more than that. The expectation is that President Buhari should personally distance himself from that plot. His disavowal will send strong signal to the quarters fuelling tenure elongation that they are on a wild goose chase. Issuing of press statements on the matter by presidential aides is not convincing enough.
The public perception is that the presidential publicists are only protecting and projecting the image of their boss.Even in the event that federal lawmakers succumb to pressure to amend the section of the 1999 constitution on tenure, the throw up from the members during plenary will surprise even the promoters of the cause. Undoubtedly, the All Progressives Congress (APC) maintains a majority in the both the Senate and House of Representative, but if this matter reaches that definitive stage, entrenched interests will emerge to override the personal interests of the lawmakers.
Speaking during plenary in 2006 in the run-up to shooting down former President Obasanjo’s tenure elongation plot, former senate president , Adolphus Wabara said so many beautiful things the Obasanjo administration had accomplished that ought to had warranted it a third term, but lamented that his people on whose mandate he was elected asked him to vote against the project.
On this Buhari issue, however mooted it appears, vested interests within and outside his political party, who are eyeing the 2023 presidency should be oiling their gun for a showdown. For instance, the National Leader of the APC, Asiwaju Ahmed Tinubu has never hidden his ambition to contest the presidency in 2023. Besides Tinubu, there are several others who are still weighing their options. It is an incontrovertible fact that some vested interests irrespective of political affiliation will bunch up to ensure that any plot at tenure elongation comes to naught, even at the risk of being accused of anti-party activities.
Assuming without conceding that the amendment gets the national assembly endorsement willy-nilly, it still needs two-third endorsement from 36 State Houses of Assembly. The opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is almost running neck and neck with the APC in the control of these states. If Nigeria’s political permutation is anything to go by, these states legislative bodies will most likely not endorse the amendment.
Beyond the political class, in the past five years of the Buhari administration, prominent ethnic nationalities in the country believe that the Fulani ethnic group have had more than their fair share in the sharing of our commonwealth. These groups will most likely coalesce and put up a common front in shooting down the project. The thinking being that other ethnic nationalities should have a shot at the presidency. In the event that these other ethnic nationalities fail to have their way, expectedly, their next line of action will be fuelling of separatists’ movements.
African leaders, especially in the Maghreb region, are favourably disposed to transmuting to becoming presidents for life. However, the international community led by the United States of America, frown at leaders manipulating the system to perpetuate their stay in power. In the event that such leaders manipulate the system to retain power, they will have to contend with diplomatic cold shoulders that may lead to economic blockade, among others.
