Written by Francess Otti
Since the rebirth of Nigeria’s democracy in 1999, electoral violence of varying levels has been the order of the day. Many drivers of election violence largely remain unaddressed as the struggle for resource control continues to raise the stakes for clashes at the 2023 polls. The politicization of security and law enforcement institutions has also hampered the fight against electoral-related conflict and this makes their neutrality questionable. Security and law enforcement officers are widely seen as loyal to the government of the day, and as tools for intimidation and harassment of opponents.
The varying electoral conflicts, whether sponsored or spontaneous, signify discontent with certain social and economic concerns. In Nigeria, these concerns largely include dissatisfaction with government performance, competition for resources, inter- and intra-group distrust, joblessness, and anger at corrupt politicians with no regard for the rule of law.
Compounding the situation are long-standing religious and ethnic-regional tensions that make elections the battleground for political supremacy and resource control among Nigeria’s complex mix of ethnic groups. As a campaign strategy, some candidates have often used inflammatory messages to fuel violence between rival groups and Christians and Muslims.
In the year 1992, the transition from military to civilian rule was reported to have been conducted without extensive violence, according to the Carter Center and the National Democratic Institute of International Affairs, which jointly observed the elections.
However, subsequent election cycles have experienced widespread election-related violence ranging from intra-party clashes to political assassinations and community unrest. The 2003 cycle marked the unchecked expansion of the hiring and arming of militias to serve narrow political ends. Politicians and party bosses found a ready supply of unemployed men, frequently youths, willing to perpetrate violence in exchange for pay and firepower.
With the weapons and firearms still circulating, election-based violence has increased and is largely characterized by intimidation, civil strife, and social and political tension.
2023 ELECTION CYCLE
As Nigerians head to the 2023 polls, it has witnessed the largest, most youthful electorate participation in Nigerian history. With the uprising of the Labour Party [LP] and its presidential candidate, Mr. Peter Obi, the majority of the Nigerian youths have thrown their weight behind the LP candidate, a man they perceive as “God sent” and a better candidate than the “front liners”. The “Obidient” movement sparked fierce tension, opposition, and intimidation among different Nigerians seeking to defend their political principal.
The 2023 election is taking place amid widespread insecurity as opposed to the past election cycle. The 2015 and 2019 election cycle was threatened majorly by Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province [ISWAP] in the North East. But now several other groups have popped up and operate in the North West/Central and Southeast. The Biafra Nation separatist agitators also prove a security risk during this election cycle as a faction of the group threatens to obstruct the electioneering process in Biafra Land.
On 11 November 2022, the national security adviser to the president, Major General (retired) Babagana Monguno, said police had recorded 52 incidents of election-related violence in 22 states since the presidential campaign officially commenced on 28 September. Different political parties have suffered attacks at campaign events, the assassination of members, and the destruction of electioneering properties. The Independent National Electoral Commission [INEC] has also come under attack with some of its structures and electioneering materials razed down.
More violence is expected to plague the 2023 elections as Nigerian political party supporters are going all out to arm themselves to defend and protect their votes. Some have taken to coercion to ensure that their communities vote for a particular candidate in favor of their ethnicity or religion.
In Eti-Osa Local Government Area of Lagos State, a certain traditional ruler in the Igbara community reportedly summoned a meeting of about 60 persons from the community, where he told them that every member of the community must vote for “our party”. He further directed voters to take pictures of their ballot papers to show compliance; otherwise, they would have problems within the community after the election. It was an open threat, no holds barred.
With the economic hardship and retrogression facing Nigeria, one would expect that Nigerians would look beyond personal interests and ambitions to make decisions that would put Nigeria in its place in the world. But clearly, the major stakeholders are not bothered about the big picture; all they want is for their party to win by all means. And this is the major reason Nigeria’s politics is characterized by hate and religious and ethnic extremism.
NATIONAL ELECTORAL OFFENCES COMMISSION AND THE PEACE ACCORD COMMITTEE
The Independent National Electoral Commission [INEC] had charged political candidates and parties with an issue-based campaign, devoid of hate speeches that would instigate violence among supporters. In August, INEC supported the current “Bill for an Act to Establish the National Electoral Offences Commission and Related Matters 2022”, which was presented for a public hearing by the House of Representatives in August 2022.
The bill proposes a 15-year jail term for anyone convicted of vote buying in any election; 20 years jail term or a fine of ₦40 million for persons convicted of ballot box snatching and anyone convicted of hate speech or action which incites violence shall be liable to a minimum of 10 years imprisonment or at least ₦40 million.
Also, the bill proposes no fewer than six months jail term or a minimum of ₦100,000 for anyone convicted of disturbing public peace at the venue of an election. Also, security personnel and staff of INEC convicted of trying to influence an election in favor of a candidate shall be liable to, at least, six months imprisonment or a minimum of ₦500,000 fine.
Others are a 15-year jail term without the option of a fine for any judicial officer convicted of perverting electoral justice and at least 10 years jail term or a fine of N5 million or both for anyone convicted of impersonating a candidate in an election, among others.
The National Peace Committee was founded in 2014, to remind political gladiators that Nigerian elections or leadership contests are not a do-or-die affair, and should not be so. On September 29, the National Peace committee led by General Abdusalami Abukakar and the Bishop of Sokoto Diocese, Bishop Matthew Hassan Kukah organized an event in Abuja where Presidential candidates of the political parties for the 2023 general elections signed an accord to give peace a chance, avoid violence and respect the rule of law and order.
The signing of the Peace Accords has preceded recent Nigerian elections. However, commitments to peace around election time by political parties and candidates aren’t enough to bring stability and aren’t effective. While the commitment promised in peace accords is important, the structural drivers of violence must also be tackled.
Electoral violence before, during, and after elections, is criminalized in Nigeria; a clear affirmation that politicians and their agents must not take the law into their hands, but the reality is that Nigerian politicians play politics as a do-or-die affair. Hence, they talk violently, behave violently, and surround themselves with violent assistants’ aka able-bodied men or thugs. These thugs with fanciful “official” titles kill, maim, and destroy anything and anyone challenging their ambition. They and their masters have turned Nigerian politics into a criminal enterprise. Politicians need to understand that the recruitment of these armed assistants is a double-edged sword; as they can switch sides and become a thorn in their flesh.
NAIRA REDESIGN POLICY
Further complicating the issues surrounding the 2023 elections is the Naira redesign policy announced on October 26, 2022, by the governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Godwin Emefiele. He left no one in doubt that the key objective of the exercise was to enable the apex bank to take control of the currency in circulation and fight electoral corruption, especially vote buying, during the 2023 general elections. This was a welcome development among many Nigerians but was heavily opposed by political elites who have been alleged to be sabotaging the efforts of the CBN and deposit money banks at circulating the new naira notes.
The scarcity of the new and old naira notes has led bankers and point-of-sale terminal operators, to commercialize the distribution and exchange of these notes. Nigerians spend countless hours struggling and fighting in never-ending queues trying to collect money that belongs to them. Amid other national crises, including fuel scarcity, poor electricity distribution, and inflation; the scarcity of Naira notes has driven people to the edge and has fueled mass demonstrations in many cities. Videos are circulating as people who are mentally challenged, flip and strip themselves naked in banking halls and filling stations.
Banks are shutting down as furious customers beat up their workers and destroy facilities. With 31 percent of Nigeria’s population illiterate and 63 percent living below the poverty line, it’s not surprising the methods many Nigerians have taken to express their frustrations at the failed system. As in preceding years, Nigerians take to the destruction of infrastructure and facilities to relay their grievance to the government. Oftentimes this vandalization of properties which they call protests does not affect the targeted officials, worse still it creates more avenues for these targets to enrich themselves through the disbursement of resources to rehabilitate damaged infrastructures and facilities. The government has deliberately impoverished the masses and denied them sound education so that they can continue to weaponize their ignorance and vulnerability. With proper enlightenment and education of the masses, Nigeria will take many steps forward in crisis management and the fight against political manipulation.
THE WAY FORWARD
One would wonder; are these nation destroyers unaffected by the degree of damage done to this country? Will the wealth they have amassed for themselves and their generation save them when we no longer have a country? Are they immune to the shame they bring to Nigeria on the global stage?
With the general elections less than ten days from today, it is essential for Nigeria to regain its peace and functionality to ensure a successful election. The vocal minority needs to understand that propelling violence during an election cycle only serves the goals of uncaring politicians. They need to understand that they are fighting wars for individuals who have no real vision or interest in Nigeria. They need to understand that in enthroning people who are ready to kill to win, they are signing the death warrant of many Nigerians and generations unborn. Nigeria politics is described as a dirty game because of the degree of bloodshed and desperation for power linked with it; this makes decent and patriotic Nigerians stay away from political participation. However, the fact remains that, if patriotic Nigerians continue to shy away from the messiness in politics, we will continue to be at the mercy of these criminals who have no other goal than to plunge Nigeria into a depth of no return. Nigeria needs more than statements and words criticizing the government and take proactive measures to rid the system of these greedy blood-thirsty politicians.
The Nigerian government, if they still have an ounce of sympathy left for the people they lead, needs to suspend the naira redesign policy until they have sufficient notes ready for circulation to match the amount retrieved by the banks. The government also needs to ensure that it has in place efficient structures to implement and monitor the implementation of its policies. Electronic transaction channels need to be well-serviced to ensure seamless transactions for customers. When all these have been properly checked and put in place the government and CBN can fully enforce the extradition of the designated currency notes. Only then can the masses fully embrace the currency transition and return to a state of national peace.
The economic crisis in the Buhari-led administration has bitten down hard on every Nigerian, regardless of tribe or religion. We can only hope that Nigerians will stay true to their conscience and be patriotic enough to vote for national progress over personal enrichment.
